As the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections approach, all the parties have started trying hard. The Bharatiya Janata Party, which is in power in Uttar Pradesh, is once again in the election fray in the state with all its strength, while on the other hand, the Samajwadi Party is also fully confident about its victory in the elections. BSP and Congress party are also making different claims about their victory. Small parties will play an important role in this time’s assembly elections, it cannot be denied. The BJP and the Samajwadi Party have given importance to alliances with smaller parties, while the BSP and the Congress have not announced an alliance with any party so far. Alliance has always had an important place in the politics of Uttar Pradesh. This is clearly visible if we look at the results of the last few elections. Be it the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the 2017 assembly elections or the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the alliance has played an important role in all these elections. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the SP-BSP-RLD alliance had damaged the BJP in a few seats in UP as compared to 2014. While the BJP alliance had won 64 seats, the SP-BSP-RLD alliance had won 15 seats. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP + got 73 seats, SP got 5 seats and Congress got 2 seats while BSP and Rashtriya Lok Dal could not even open their account. While the SP-Congress alliance remained ineffective in 2017, the BJP-Apna Dal-SubhSP alliance had secured a thumping majority.
If we look at the results of the 2017 assembly elections, the BJP alliance had registered a big victory by getting 41 percent votes. The Samajwadi Party and Congress alliance got 28 percent, while the Bahujan Samaj Party got 22 percent of the votes. BJP leaders are claiming that the Bharatiya Janata Party is fighting a 50 percent battle. They believe that BJP is in 50 percent and all parties are in the remaining 50 percent. In this way, if there is a split in the anti-BJP votes, then it can directly benefit the BJP. In the politics of Uttar Pradesh, big regional parties like SP BSP have their own support base. It is known from the last many elections that BJP has broken into the vote bank of SP BSP RLD. Due to which these parties have suffered in the last many elections. All the parties keep an eye on the Muslim-Jat-Dalit votes in western Uttar Pradesh. Jat is considered to be the vote bank of the National Lok Dal, while the Dalit vote belongs to the BSP, while the SP BSP tries hard to bring Muslim votes to its side. The results of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections destroyed all political equations in Uttar Pradesh. The traditional votes of all the parties were seen to be splintering from him. In view of this, all the parties are trying to cover their vote bank as well as burglary in the vote bank of other parties. Like 2007, Mayawati is trying hard to bring Brahmin votes in her favor, while Akhilesh Yadav is eyeing an alliance with RLD to win as many seats as possible in UP with the help of Jat-Muslim equation. If reports are to be believed, talks are going on between the Azad Samaj Party and the SP regarding an alliance. If there is an alliance between Azad Samaj Party and SP, then it can be a matter of concern not only for BSP but also for BJP in western Uttar Pradesh. Azad Samaj did much better in western Uttar Pradesh in the UP Panchayat elections. Azad Samaj Party got a lot of support from the youth section of the Dalit society in the Panchayat elections.
AIMIM National President Asaduddin Owaisi is also busy in campaigning vigorously in UP. In his own style, Owaisi is targeting BJP and other parties. In one of his rally, Owaisi made a statement about Jinnah and Gaye. He said that we are doing sugarcane-cane for the farmers and BJP-RSS is doing Jinnah-Jinnah. Who will benefit or who will be harmed by such statements of Owaisi, it remains to be seen? It will also be a matter to be seen how the agitation by the farmers on the Delhi border will affect the UP elections, but somewhere the farmers movement has given RLD a chance to get back its lost land in western Uttar Pradesh. How much the SP RLD alliance can take advantage of this, it will be clear only after the election results. Samajwadi Party has allied with Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party, Mahan Dal, People’s Party, Apna Dal, Communist Party, Political Justice Party, Democratic Party Socialist, Bahujan Mul Samaj Party, Labor S Party, Bharatiya Kisan Sena while BJP has formed an alliance with Bharatiya Suheldev Janata Party. , Shoshit Samaj Party, Bharatiya Manav Samaj Party, Manav Hit Party, Bharatiya Samata Samaj Party, Musahar Andolan Manch and Prithviraj Janshakti Party. Will SP get power this time with the help of smaller parties or BJP will benefit from division of anti-BJP votes, it will be known only after the election results.
Author – Abhishek Ahlawat